Down to 11

So, if you had told me that E-Wood (JR) would outlast his wife Meagan (Aaron), I would have thought you were crazy. But Meagan fell victim this last week to the tribal mix-up. I think They did the right thing in voting him off, but I hate the fact that they dropped the challenge on purpose. Totally lame.
So, here's the update.
Improved:
1. Ami McNay: Erik benefiting by getting rid of Aaron (and likely James next week). And he also wasn't lame like the girls. He really could go all the way.
2. Ang Stump: Frosti is not next on the chopping block even though he was in the mix-up. Now he is likely to have some options going into the merge.
Slightly Down:
3. Me: Todd is hurt a little bit by having Aaron voted out. However, in the long run it will help him to have immunity hogs out of there.
4. Andrea Moffat: Amanda is in pretty much the same position as Todd.
5. Karina Franklin: If James gets voted off (more in this later), she loses her closest ally.
Bad Form:
6. Greg Moffat: Lost respect for Jamie. Lame for dropping the challenge and for not telling Erik about it.
Even Strength:
7. Dan Stump: Sherea is in trouble if her tribe loses. Although, they may jsut vote JR off. Courtney's position is probably improved. PG took the lame dive with Jamie.
Hurting:
8. E-Wood. Je is in trouble, but if the other tribe is successful in dropping the next challenge, he should make the merge.
9. Dave McAllister: Brutal man. Poor James. I want to now list off the remaining ways that James could end up not getting voted off next week:
* A merge (his best hope)
* Jamie and PG have a change of heart and decide to actually compete
* Erik turns on the challenge-throwing chicks
* Todd convinces his tribe to try even harder to purposefully lose the challenge so that he can get rid of JR
* James convinces Jeff to let him compete one on one with someone from the other tribe for immunity

Sorry, Dave. Don't see it happening.

New Over/Unders:
Todd: 3
Amanda: 3
Erik: 3
Sherea: 7
Courtney: 4
James: 11
Jamie: 4
PG: 4
JR: 9
Frosti: 5
Denise: 6

Those who can win:
1. Todd
2. Amanda
3. Erik
4. Frosti

I don't want to put anyone else on the list.
Courtney: Won't convince people to vote for her.
PG and Jamie: Lost votes because of the flagrant throwing of challenges.
Denise: Won't be strategic enough to go all the way.
JR: No one likes him.
James: Screwed.
Sherea: No one likes her.

See you next week.